“Stronger than I expected” – Gerald Epstein on AEA disclosure guidelines

One year ago, Gerald Epstein and Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth, two economists at  the University of Massachusetts Amherst, organised an open letter to the American Economic Association urging the organisation to

“adopt a code of ethics that requires disclosure of potential conflicts of interest that can arise between economists’ roles as economic experts and as paid consultants, principals or agents for private firms”.

More than 300 economists signed the letter, among them Nobel laureate George Akerlof and Christina Romer, a former advisor to US president Barack Obama.

Almost exactly one year later, the American Economic Association in fact agreed on a new disclosure codex. (Luigi Zingales also presented an interesting paper on the “Capture of Economists”.)

What do the authors of the open letter make of the new guidelines? I did an interview with Gerald Epstein, who wasn’t involved in the discussions about the new rules.

Olaf Storbeck: Gerald, what do you think about the new AEA disclosure guidelines? Are you satisfied?

Gerald Epstein:  I think the AEA guidelines are a very big step forward. They make very clear the importance of disclosure of potential conflicts of interest by economists and set out in detail the types of conflicts that should be disclosed. In some ways these guidelines are stronger than i had expected.

For example?

They require disclosure with respect to publication in AEA journals, rather than just recommend it. And they require such disclosure with respect to a broad range of possible conflicts including those connected to groups that might have an ideological interest in the outcome of the article and not just material or financial. While this cuts a broad area, I think it is healthy.

The guidelines also suggest that these same criteria for disclosure apply to all other publications, including non academic publications, media appearances and testimonies. By suggesting their application to these areas, as well as by requiring such disclosures for AEA publications, these guidelines will help to set norms of behavior that colleagues, the press, students and citizens can help hold economists accountable to.

Is there anything missing?

One could quibble about the $10,000 limit. For an economist who makes a low salary, smaller amounts would have a significant impact. Still, I think that as a bench mark, the $10,000 figure is fine since it will catch most of the economists for whom such kinds of activities are an important part of their work.

What should happen next?

These guidelines should be widely promoted and reported on in the press and it would be important for journalists, students and others to try to see if such guidelines can be broadly implemented for other publications, TV and radio appearances, etc. The point would be to make such guidelines a broad norm that are widely implemented .

Will these guidelines have any impact?

I do think they will have an impact in terms of providing information to the public. it is very difficult to predict whether it will have an impact on the professional activities of economists. It will take five  years or so to see that.

Would you recommend economic associations abroad to adapt similar guidelines?

Yes. Absolutely. I think this would be a good starting point for other associations. If they do not have publications, then they could still recommend the broad guidelines as indicated in point 7 of the guidelines. In fact it would be good to start with point 7 and then if they have publications, then require that they apply to the organizations’ publications.

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The Inside Job, no more

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the credibility of academic economists was drawn into question because of possible conflicts of interests. The movie “The Inside Job” revealed some hair-raising examples.

In a striking paper, Gerald Epstein and Jessica Carrick-Hagenbarth showed that from 2005 to 2009, a lot of economists who made proposals for financial reform did not reveal significant links to private financial institutions.

In their paper entitled “Financial Economists, Financial Interests and Dark Corners of the Meltdown: It’s Time to set Ethical Standards for the Economics” Epstein and Carrick-Hagenbarth urged the profession to develop a “code of ethics which would require academic economists to identify these connections in appropriate contexts”.

On its current annual meeting, the American Economic Association responded  to this criticism. As the AEA announced in a press release, “the Executive Committee of the American Economic Association adopted extensions to its principles for authors’ disclosures of potential conflicts of interest in the AEA’s publications”.

These are the new guidelines:

(1) Every submitted article should state the sources of financial support for the particular research it describes. If none, that fact should be stated.

(2) Each author of a submitted article should identify each interested party from whom he or she has received significant financial support, summing to at least $10,000 in the past three years, in the form of consultant fees, retainers, grants and the like. The disclosure requirement also includes in-kind support, such as providing access to data. If the support in question comes with a non-disclosure obligation, that fact should be stated, along with as much information as the obligation permits. If there are no such sources of funds, that fact should be stated explicitly.  An “interested” party is any individual, group, or organization that has a financial, ideological, or political stake related to the article.

(3) Each author should disclose any paid or unpaid positions as officer, director, or board member of relevant non-profit advocacy organizations or profit-making entities. A “relevant” organization is one whose policy positions, goals, or financial interests relate to the article.

(4) The disclosures required above apply to any close relative or partner of any author.

(5) Each author must disclose if another party had the right to review the paper prior to its circulation.

(6) For published articles, information on relevant potential conflicts of interest will be made available to the public.

(7) The AEA urges its members and other economists to apply the above principles in other publications: scholarly journals, op-ed pieces, newspaper and magazine columns, radio and television commentaries, as well as in testimony before federal and state legislative committees and other agencies.

At a first glance, this makes a good impression to me. Let’s hope that these guidelines will usher in a new age of transparency in the economics profession.

Update: Here’s an interview with Gerald Epstein about the new rules. Gerald is full of praise.

Update: Last year, Tim Harford discussed potential conflicts of interest in an interesting piece. 

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Not so fellow any more

Why did the renowned Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) chuck out several top notch labour economists?

IZA Logo

It was one of the briefest letters David Jaeger has ever received. And few others made him so upset: “Dear David, we have decided to terminate your IZA affiliation. Thank you for your cooperation in the past and all my best wishes, Klaus”, Klaus Zimmermann wrote to Jaeger several weeks ago.

For David Jaeger, who used to teach economics at the University of Cologne and recently moved back to the City University of New York, this was a slap in the face.

He was one of the first research fellows when the Bonn based “Institute for the Study of Labor” (IZA) was founded in 1998 and has supported it ever since. In 2003 and 2004, when David Jaeger was a recipient of the renowned Humboldt Stipendium, he spend one year as a visiting fellow in Bonn. Jaeger taught at the IZA summer school and visited the economic research institute almost every summer.

“It was really a good place”, Jaeger told me. “I do find it upsetting to be summarily dismissed after all these years of being affiliated and after having spent so much time contributing to – and, in fairness, benefitting from – IZA.” He asked Klaus Zimmermann to give an explanation for the decision to throw him out but has not received any answer yet. “I have no idea why I was tossed out”, says Jaeger, who uploaded Zimmermann’s letter to his website.

David Jaeger is not the only prolific economist who recently was thrown out of IZA without any further explanation. The same thing happened to Christian Dustmann, a professor at the University College London and one of the leading empirical labour economists in Europe. “I was very surprised and I don’t know the background of this decision”, says Dustmann, who joined the IZA as a research fellow in January 1999.

The decision to sack him looks particularly weird given the fact that Dustmann worked very closely with Klaus Zimmermann until recently. From 2003 to 2010 Dustmann, was an editor of the “Journal of Population Economics”, a journal founded by Zimmermann and published by IZA. Continue reading

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Behind the scenes of EJMR – An interview with Kirk

The Economic Jobs Market Rumor Forum is a controversial web forum for economists.  Christine Mattauch, a German freelance journalist based in New York City, recently wrote a story about EJMR for Handelsblatt (“Die Gerüchteküche der Volkswirte”) . She got in touch with “Kirk”,  the anonymous moderator of the forum and did the following interview with him by email.

Christine Mattauch: When was the website founded, and why?

Kirk: An economist who went by the alias of Tatonnement founded Economics Job Market Rumors (EJMR) several years ago. The aim was to provide a forum to help economists share information and tips about the complex economics job market. About a year ago Tatonnement no longer wanted to moderate the site and offered it to the person who made the best proposal to be the next moderator.

How many users does it have, and could you say how they are scattered by countries/regions? Any idea where the site ranks in comparison with competitors?

In a typical month EJMR receives between 50,000-60,000 unique visitors, over 200,000 visits and 2 million pageviews. The average length of a visit is over 8 minutes. The top 5 countries by visitors are US, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia. I don’t really think of other sites as competitors as EJMR operates in a fairly unique space.

In you own view, what makes the site attractive to the econ community? What would you consider being unique?

EJMR provides students with insider information of the economics job market and profession that they can’t find anywhere else. It also gives economists a unique opportunity to unwind and discuss various topics with fellow economists without having to worry about their reputation being tarnished.

Why do you want to stay anonymous?

For two primary reasons. Given that EJMR often breaks the news of controversies in the economics profession, it could be damaging to my career to be named as the moderator of the site. Secondly, since EJMR discusses a lot of political and economic issues I feel it is important to remain as non-partisan as possible, and show no preference to any topic. Users of the site have various theories on my identity, but they’re not very close!

Would you reveal if you are the administrator or founder of the website, or maybe both? Any personal/background information you would allow us to share, like male/female, living in London (or not), being a student/an economist, whatever?

The name Kirk gives it away. Where I come from the scarcity problem has been solved by replicators and the Federation no longer has a need for economists. I stand alone in a society dominated by political scientists.

Is the site being operated out of passion (as a hobby, we would say in German) or is it a commercial project?

A combination of the two, but primarily as a hobby. Web design is a hobby of mine and I and find it much more interesting to be working on a site that has so many users and serves a useful purpose rather than tinkering with projects that nobody looks at. Since taking over EJMR I’ve added several new features including a optimized site for smartphones, a quote button, a voting system, and identifier tags so that within a thread users are able to anonymously identify each other using 4 character tags.

A main feature is that anyone can post easily and that entries are hardly censored. Why is that?

This brings several benefits to EJMR. Firstly, by having minimal entry barriers it raises the number of active contributors to the site and minimises the number of ‘lurkers’. Secondly, the anonymity and ease of use allows users to express their opinions or reveal information that they would not be comfortable to do otherwise. Thirdly, a lot of moderation does take place, but it is done discreetly.

John Cawley with Cornell University writes in a guide for young economists about the site: “I had high hopes for it, thinking it might be a clearinghouse for important information. Sadly, it’s virtually useless as the message boards are overwhelmed with unrelated and offensive posts. Job candidates are better off ignoring it.” – Your comment?

I wholeheartedly disagree. Out of every 50 posts, about 4 or 5 may be unrelated or offensive. These are either deleted quickly or sink to the bottom of the site when no one responds. In addition, users of EJMR also have a mechanism to report each post to be deleted; adding an element of crowd sourced moderating to the site. The site is popular with some of the most distinguished economics professors, but I’ll admit that it can help to have a sense of humor when visiting EJMR.

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Target2 – The Zombie Returns

I have wasted way too much time with the Target2 debate and thought that everything as been said at least three times. However, not by everyone.

Yesterday,  Aaron Tornell with UCLA and  Frank Westermann (University of Osnabrück) exumed the debate with a weird post on Voxeu.org. Both academics got completely lost in the arcane details of central bank accounting and make claims that are not backed by facts. Unfortunately, this piece got a lot of publicity because FT Alphaville and  Felix Salmon picked it up.

Karl Whelan debunks the  arguments by Tornell and Westermann convincingly in a piece entitled “Worse than Sinn”. His conclusion is straightforward:

“this piece has even less to add (and more to subtract, if believed) to the stock of useful knowledge than Sinn’s various pieces”

There’s nothing to add to Karl’s points.

I really wounder how some academics work. If Tornell and Westermann would have bothered to take a look either a brief chapter in March edition of the Bundesbank monthly bulletin (pp 34ff) or the October edition of the ECB monthly report (pp 35ff) , they should have realised how flawed their description of the Target2 operations is.

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The Italian Job – How Passports Influence Monetary Policy Decisions

German Logo of the ECB.

Logo of the ECB (Image via Wikipedia)

The nationality of the ECB’s managerial staff matters for the monetary policy of the central bank, two German and Austrian economists show in a new paper. The findings are so politically charged that the detailed results of the study are kept secret.

Today is the first working day of Mario Draghi as the new president of the European Central Bank. Apart from Draghi, two more Italians have a seat in the ECB council: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and Ignazio Visco, Draghis successor at the helm of the Bank of Italy.

Currently, no other Euro zone country has as much influence in the ECB council as Italy has. Ironically, the country is also at the centre of the Euro crisis.

Does the nationality of the ECB’s policy maker matter?

„Not at all“, would be the official answer of the central bank to this question. Formally, members of the governing council do not represent their home country. According to the rules of the ECB, they have to base their decisions on the needs of the whole currency area. In a metaphorical sence, they hand in their passports when they join the central bank.

Is this a realistic description of what’s going on in the central bank?

Harald Badinger (Vienna University of Economics and Business) and Volker Nitsch (University of Darmstadt) addressed this question a remarkable paper. According to their results, the official view is a delusion. In reality, the nationality of the policy makers does influence the monetary policy of the ECB.

Continue reading

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On the merits of repeating oneself – A conference in defense of Bruno Frey

On 9 December, Jürgen Backhaus, Professor of Economics  at the University of Erfurt and  the editor of the “European Journal of  Law and Economics” (EJLE), will host a very interesting conference on self-plagiarism in general and the scientific conduct of Bruno Frey in particular.

Under the auspices of Backhaus, the ELJE in 2006 published two articles by Frey that had already been published earlier in other journals with different titles, as I reported in September. (A detailed comparison of the content of the papers is available here and here.)

The invitation, which was distributed via the newsletter of the  “Societies for the History of Economics”, refers to my articles about Bruno Frey (the full story is here and here) and his tendency to publish similar papers in a number of journals without any cross-references:

“It is only by varied repetition that new ideas can be impressed upon reluctant minds.”

This often repeated admonition by the Nobel-prize winning economist James M. Buchanan is obviously unknown to the journalist of the German daily “Handelsblatt” Olaf Storbeck, who has initiated a vendetta against the well-respected economist Bruno S. Frey accusing him of self-plagiarism.

Many people agree that such a delinquency does not even exist. For this reason, a meeting will be convened at the University of Erfurt to discuss the issue, the merits and demerits of repeating oneself.

Essays read and defended at this meeting will be published in the journal “Homo Oeconomicus” in a conference issue. The meeting will take place at the University of Erfurt on December 9.”

I really wonder who is going to attend this conference and will give lectures.

Continue reading

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Why new roads do not alleviate congestion

Traffic congestion of automobiles caused of pe...

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Each year, motorists in Germany collectively spend 234 million hours in traffic jams. According to estimates by the German highway authority, this congestion causes an economic loss of about 3.5 billion Euro per year.

At first sight, there’s an easy solution to this problem: just build more roads, and the congestion will vanish, won’t it? Automobile lobbyists are pushing this view very strongly, and they are at least partially successful.

Even in cash-strappedBritain, which is currently enduring the most severe austerity programme since the second world war, the government spends 897 million pounds on new roads, reports George Monbiot.

However, more roads will not bring an end to congestion. Instead, they will bring more traffic. The American economist Anthony Downs put forward this hypothesis more than four decades ago.  He called this idea the “fundamental law of highway congestion”.

According to an amazing paper by two Canadian economists, Downs really had a point.

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Target2 debate – The ECB finally gets involved

Several months ago, German economist Hans-Werner Sinn stirred a debate about an alleged “stealth bailout” happening in the Eurozone. According to Sinn, the Bundesbank and other central banks in the core of the Euro area secretly give loans to the countries in the periphery that come at the expense of their own banks.  A number of economists and journalists (including me) have contradicted Sinns arguments.

Now, finally, the ECB itself gets involved. In its latest monthly bulletin, published yesterday, the central bank addresses the arguments of Hans-Werner Sinn. From my point of view, this analysis is at odds with Sinn’s view.

Here’s a table that compares of statements by Sinn and the ECB on the matter.

Continue reading

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Olaf Storbeck smackdown watch, nobel prize edition

In the debate about Target2 balances I was impressed by Felix Salmon’s response to my criticism. In a post entitled “Felix Salmon smackdown watch” he just acknowledged it.

I’m in a similar situation right now with regard to my rant against this years decision on the Nobel prize.

A number of comments on my blog and in private emails as well as a discussion on Kantoos Economics (in German) have convinced me that I mixed my general skepticism about contemporary macro with the specific work of Sargent and Sims.  In my blog post I made some claims about the work of the new laureates that  are not  justified. Continue reading

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